Devolution Crisis Deepens at Stormont
McGuinness Warns of Trouble Unless Agreement Reached by Christmas
Nov 11, 2009
Sinn Fein Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness today told UTV News that power-sharing in Northern Ireland would be in "deep trouble" unless an agreement was reached over the devolution of policing and justice powers from Westminster to Stormont "by Christmas".
His warning comes on the day the Irish Foreign Minister Micheal Martin held talks with the North's politicians at Stormont, and after several weeks of talks between the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Sinn Fein and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
A £1 billion package has been agreed to finance devolution, but the DUP has warned that devolution by Christmas is unlikely.
DUP Assembly Member Simon Hamilton said in Tuesday's Assembly that his party "would not be led by calendar dates".
Months of Delay
The DUP and Sinn Fein are the dominant parties in the Northern Ireland Executive, and devolution cannot take place until both parties are in agreement.
Sinn Fein want this final stage of devolution to be completed as soon as possible, while the DUP are delaying agreement over what they call a need for greater unionist confidence.
Sinn Fein argue that the powers should have been devolved more than a year ago, while the DUP fear a backlash among unionist voters if they are seen to accede to republican demands too readily.
Final Stage of Good Friday Agreement
The devolution of these powers is seen as the final stage in the process of devolving powers from London to a Belfast power-sharing institution, a process that began with the 1998 Good Friday Agreement.
The institutions have been suspended several times since then, mainly because of unionist unhappiness over the failure of the Provisional IRA, widely seen as the military wing of Sinn Fein, to decommission its weaponry.
Stability has mostly reigned since May 2007, however, when the largest unionist party, the DUP, agreed to share power with Sinn Fein after the Provisional IRA's decommissioning and disbandment in 2005.
Policing and justice devolution has, however, repeatedly been a cause of discord since then, as 2008 saw a five-month period when the Executive did not meet, because of Sinn Fein's refusal to attend meetings in protest at what they saw as unfair DUP delays on the matter.
Electoral Considerations
In this year's election to the European Parliament, the Traditional Unionist Voice Party did massive electoral damage to the DUP, taking almost half of its vote and pushing the DUP from first to third place.
The DUP fears that any precipitate move on devolution may play badly with sections of the unionist electorate, many of whom already resent the sight of Sinn Fein in government, and may thereby damage the DUP electorally.
Gerry Moriarty, the Irish Times Northern Editor, wrote on November 6 in an article entitled "Anxiety at lack of action on policing and justice":
"The DUP leader is in something of a dilemma. He knows that some of his nine Westminster seats are under threat from the right, from Jim Allister’s Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV)."
This explains why they have, over the last few months, and despite several meetings with British prime minister Gordon Brown, raised conditions before agreeing to the devolution of policing powers.
DUP Conditions
DUP First Minister Peter Robinson wants to see the abolition of the Parades Commission, a body blamed by many loyalists for refusing to allow Orange Order parades along contentious routes such as the Garvaghy Road in Portadown.
He told the Assembly last month the Commission should be abolished "to increase confidence in devolved policing and justice powers".
The DUP conditions all appear designed to reassure the unionist electorate and prevent it being tempted away from the DUP and toward the TUV.
Possible Downfall of Stormont
There is now increasing concern that Sinn Fein might lose patience with DUP delays and walk out of the Executive, thereby collapsing the institutions and triggering Assembly elections.
An editorial in An Phoblacht, a republican newspaper closely linked to Sinn Fein, said:
"DUP and British Government short-term expediency has the potential to push the present impasse into free-fall."
The next few weeks will reveal whether this grim warning was prescient or a negotiating tactic.
Sources: BBC, UTV, Irish Times, An Phoblacht
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